variables in particular foreign financial markets and hence taking them into account in their portfolio and also their money holding decision. This consideration does not necessarily have to be reflected [...] that different currencies are held side by side by economic agents, rather they must also adjust their currency holdings to changes in economic (price) signals, i.e. actively switch between currency holdings [...] both before and after the fall of the Berlin Wall without CS effects is Tullio et al. (1996). But their result may be due to a somewhat "strange" specification and an inconsistency: Especially they only
They usually hold a large proportion of their money holdings as
transactions balances, using these balances mainly as a buffer, while slowly adjusting their
portfolio composition. In addition, households’ [...] cointegration relationships by the cross correlation between
their monetary overhang measures suggests that models 2-n and 4-r are quite similar in their assessment of
actual money holdings relative to equilibrium [...] cointegration relationships by the cross correlation between
their monetary overhang measures suggests that models 2-n and 4-r are quite similar in their assessment of
actual money holdings relative to equilibrium
all the variables used together
with their abbreviations and data sources.
The trend behavior of the variables included necessitates an analysis of their stationarity properties to
determine an [...] originates in the household sector. Of course, retailers hold cash due to
the payment behavior of their customers. But they have an incentive to economize on cash holdings. Other
non-financial firms and [...]
cross-border chains of transactions, criminals are remarkably adept at concealing the origin of their funds.
To investigate how shadow economic activities affect cash demand, we construct a variable
holdings of US dollars. Central banks
also have an interest in monitoring cash developments
because of their role in operating the payment system.
If banknotes are predominantly demanded for hoarding
purposes [...] of cashed checks is available since 1978, and the time series for
debit card payments start with their introduction in 1987. Prior to these dates,
we set the value of the respective series to zero. The [...] 15Stix (2013) presents survey evidence with many respondents reporting that
they allocate part of their savings to cash.
tests are most decisive for the large denominations, where
both tests indicate
captures the Bundesbank’s monetary policy remarkably well. However, their
analysis is based on ex-post revised data. We try to replicate their results under more
realistic informational assumptions. Ideally [...] long-run equilibrium
level in response to departures of either expected inflation or output from their respective
targets. Furthermore, they assume that the actual rate adjusts only partially to the target [...] quantitative assessment of the economic outlook.
Staff forecasts of inflation and output do exist, but their semi-annual frequency and varying
time horizons render them unsuitable for our purposes. Therefore
step, we use the selected monetary and credit variables
within different VAR models, and compare their forecasting properties against a benchmark
VAR model with GDP and the term spread (and univariate [...] Economic Association 2015 and the IBEFA Summer Meeting 2015, as well as two anonymous referees for their suggestions
and comments. We also thank R. Borg for helpful comments on an earlier version of the [...] only holding for
Divisia money; Aksoy and Piskorski (2005, 2006) exclude foreign holdings of cash in their analysis. In contrast, the older
literature on the US economy usually found that official monetary
cross-border chains of transactions, criminals are remarkably
adept at concealing the origin of their funds.
The goal of our paper is to shed light on the relationship between the size of the shadow [...] Segendorf's (2007) analysis of the
difference between households' incomes and the expenditures. In their view, this difference captures transactions in the
shadow economy which they find to be positively [...] unbalanced panel structure.8
The trend behavior of the variables included necessitates an analysis of their stationarity properties to determine an
appropriate specification of the empirical model. However
outside the euro area and to allow them to sub-frontload credit institutions having their head or registered office in their jurisdiction from 1 December 2001. Also, national central banks of the euro area [...] institutions, national central banks or dedicated exchange points. National central banks will exchange their respective national banknotes against euro free of charge at least until the end of 2012. The bulk [...] money, bonds and shares, that the “prosperous-economy explanation” of the strong dollar is wrong. In their view there is little reason to expect a country’s profit expectations to translate into the exchange
discussed.
The second section of Chapter II discusses various monetary policy strategies and their adequacy to
the Eurosystem. A monetary policy strategy is defined as the basic thrust of monetary [...] marginal lending facility and the
deposit facility. The individual instruments are described, and their effects characterised, using the
consolidated balance sheet, the "financial statement", of the
money supply. Instead, they adjust it to achieve a target for the interest rate, and they adjust
their interest-rate target in response to movements in output and inflation." oder etwa
Mehrling (2004
after a while to modify their
liquidity management correspondingly; (2) in the course of the first 18 months, some national
central banks revised their arrangement with their Treasury, also in view of [...] undertakes a similar
analysis of the demand and supply of factors of Federal Reserve deposits and their dynamic
interaction. As far as possible, we follow Hamilton�s line of reasoning. Nevertheless, some [...]
In a second step we cover the interaction between supply and demand factors for deposits and their
price in the form of the spread between the overnight rate and the main refinancing rate of the
Eurosystem
a seminar at the Banque de France and especially the discussant
of the paper, L. Lalouette, for their input. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and should
not be interpreted as [...] households at the point of sale
(POS), i. e., it concentrates only on transactions balances. Their results show that in 2019
around 73 % of all payments at the POS were made with cash, with again [...] aspects of
cash demand. Bouhdaoui & Bounie (2012) compare different payment choice models in their
ability to replicate observed payment behaviour in France. Banque de France (2020) presents
at view this as a temporary shock, and hence
which major swings in inflation are about to adjust their expectations of future short-term
develop. We use the probabilistic inference from rates by less than [...] contains the estimation results and a component and its effect on the real rates. If the
discussion of their implications for German tightening is viewed as a credible commitment
business cycle analysis. Section [...] the
evidence on Germany and the European Monetary Union. 3-month and 1-month money market rates. Their per-
5For a detailed argument, relating to the 6-month commer- formance was similar, if not slightly
websites are prohibited.
In most cases authors are permitted to post their version of the
article (e.g. in Word or Tex form) to their personal website or
institutional repository. Authors requiring further [...] , the European Central Bank and the University of Münster as well
as two anonymous referees for their valuable comments. In particular, we would
like to thank S. Arz for his contributions. The opinions [...] central banks in the euro area are connected
to TARGET2. There are no constraints on the size of their balances vis-à-vis the Euro-
pean Central Bank that emerge from the cross-border flow of interbank
websites are prohibited.
In most cases authors are permitted to post their version of the
article (e.g. in Word or Tex form) to their personal website or
institutional repository. Authors requiring further [...] , the European Central Bank and the University of Münster as well
as two anonymous referees for their valuable comments. In particular, we would
like to thank S. Arz for his contributions. The opinions [...] central banks in the euro area are connected
to TARGET2. There are no constraints on the size of their balances vis-à-vis the Euro-
pean Central Bank that emerge from the cross-border flow of interbank
They usually hold a large
proportion of their money holdings as transactions balances, using these balances mainly as a buffer, while
slowly adjusting their portfolio composition. In addition, households’ [...] cointegration relationships by the cross correlation between their
monetary overhang measures suggests that models 2-n and 4-r are quite similar in their assessment of
actual money holdings relative to [...] M3 holdings are also found to be
informative for price developments in the euro area, giving their explanation a particular relevance for
monetary analysis (see European Central Bank (2006b) p
Bundesbank and the Österreichische Nationalbank for their valuable assistance. In
particular, we would like to thank M Altmann, S Arz and M Vogel for their valuable contributions. The opinions
expressed [...] suitable as a
“safe haven” and c) a banknote denomination structure which makes their storage and transport as well as their
use in the shadow economy significantly easier. With equation (4), it is now [...] within that country as they do not flow back to the central bank as
frequently. Consequently, their measured average life is longer. The prerequisite for the
application of this type of indirect
n. „ ... investors will miss no opportu-
nity to test the resolve of governments in maintaining
their exchange rate target“23. Auslöser ist, dass eine
Währung unter Abwertungsverdacht gerät. Ein Spe-
easy to recognize the origin of the various euro area coins
owing to their unique national backsides. As people clearly notice in their everyday cash
transactions, the national euro coins have become mixed [...] since
been prohibited by the US Treasury and does not seem to be an issue for euro coins owing to their
different metallic composition.
Diskussionsbeitrag / Discussion Paper
Jahrbücher f. Nation
discussed.
The second section of Chapter II discusses various monetary policy strategies and their adequacy to
the Eurosystem. A monetary policy strategy is defined as the basic thrust of monetary [...] marginal lending facility and the
deposit facility. The individual instruments are described, and their effects characterised, using the
consolidated balance sheet, the "financial statement", of the Eurosystem
Evans, 2005, among others).
However, Beck & Wieland actually base their assumption on a couple of studies
supporting their view of relatively long-lasting misperceptions (see, e.g., Orphanides [...] highlight financial intermediaries' role in determining the price of risk. As these
expand their balance sheets, their risk-bearing capacity increases and risk premiums
fall. Thus, balance sheet quantities [...] various financial intermediaries and their respective balance sheet
quantities. First, the information provided by institutions that are marking-to-market
their balance sheet items is of superior
the
market for government securities. Over time, a few of the Reserve Banks began to coordinate their
purchases and sales. The Banking Act of 1933 formalized the FOMC as an entity, consisting of the [...] relationship of the monetary aggregates to spending, the behavior of the ag-
gregates relative to their annual ranges will likely be of limited use in guiding policy
(...), and the Federal Reserve will
necessarily represent those of the Swiss National Bank.
Working Papers describe research in progress. Their aim is to
elicit comments and to further debate.
COPYRIGHT©
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) [...] via the internet, etc.) for
non-commercial purposes and provided that the source is menti-
oned. Their use for commercial purposes is only permitted with
the prior express consent of the SNB.
General [...] of US dollars. Central banks also have an interest in monitoring cash develop-
ments because of their role in operating the payment system. If banknotes are predominantly
demanded for hoarding purposes
process
may differ substantially from their ex-post revised values. Real-time
uncertainty about key variables, like actual and potential output (and their
rates of growth), opens up a role for [...] and Beck and Wieland (2007, 2008) all restrict their
attention to optimal discretionary policy. Our interest in simple rules is
motivated by their potential advantages over discretionary policy. [...] that the interpretation of the
available data often depends on the assessment of their development relative
to their trend or long-run equilibrium levels that are unobservable and can
only be estimated
specific types of
crisis (technological crisis, financial market crisis,
natural disaster) and their effects on the demand for
cash in an international context. As evidence from
the last 30 years shows [...] 1992/93, the (geo-)political crisis after the
9/11 attacks in 2001 and the Euro crisis in
2010/11. In their nature, however, these crises
were effectively confidence crises and hence
do not differ greatly [...] might
reflect precautionary motives as commer-
cial banks in these countries also quickly
increased their vault cash.19 For the US
dollar, the euro and the Swiss franc, again,
foreign non-transactional